Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Reserve will convene for three policy meetings between March and June 2026, with the market currently assigning zero probability to any change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate across this window. The FOMC sets monetary policy at each meeting, and a qualifying move—either a cut or hike—would require the new upper bound to differ from the level established prior to the respective session on 17–18 March, 28–29 April, and 16–17 June.

Historical precedent suggests extended periods of rate stability are common when inflation pressures remain moderate and labour market conditions stabilise. Between 2018 and 2019, the Fed held rates steady for eleven consecutive meetings after a tightening cycle, demonstrating that pause phases can stretch across multiple quarters once policy reaches a neutral stance. The current zero probability reflects market conviction that economic conditions—whether measured through inflation data, employment figures, or growth signals—will not warrant directional movement during this specific three-meeting span.

Traders should monitor core inflation releases, particularly the personal consumption expenditures index, alongside non-farm payroll reports scheduled before each meeting. The March employment data (due early March) and February inflation prints will frame the first decision; subsequent April and May labour and price reports will inform the April and June gatherings. Fed communications, including Chair Powell's testimony to Congress in late February, typically signal policy intent weeks ahead of formal decisions. Any unexpected economic deterioration or inflation acceleration could shift market expectations, though current positioning suggests consensus around a holding pattern.

Methodology

This page reviews Fed decisions (Mar-Jun) across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.