Will Anthropic’s valuation hit … by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Anthropic’s private valuation must reach the listed threshold on a Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) print before 31 December 2026 to resolve this market as “Yes”, yet the crowd prices that outcome at just 12%. The company has already surged past $965 billion post its May 2026 Series H-1 round and is now estimated at $1.14 trillion on NPM as of July 2026, meaning the market is effectively betting the official NPM series will lag secondary prints or that no new mark will be published before year-end [2][5]. Comparable cases show secondary valuations often outpace NPM updates by weeks; Polymarket’s analogous bet on Anthropic exceeding OpenAI’s NPM valuation by June 30 priced that at 83%, suggesting the 12% here may be discounting timing risk rather than fundamental upside [2][4].

Traders should watch for three catalysts: the next NPM price update (daily at 1:00 PM ET), any fresh fundraising announcement, and the timing of Anthropic’s confidential IPO filing, which was submitted on 1 June with a base-case public debut above $1 trillion expected by October 2026 [2][5][10]. Bloomberg reported on 13 May that Anthropic was seeking at least $30 billion in new financing at a valuation above $900 billion, a deal that could rapidly reset the NPM mark if completed before December [5]. With NPM data published only on trading days and updated once daily, a delay in official reporting could keep the market unresolved even if secondary prices hit the target, making the publication schedule a critical dependency [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Will Anthropic’s valuation hit … by December 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.