WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

West Texas Intermediate crude is trading far above the market’s implied cut-off, with live spot and futures references clustered in the mid-70s to low-90s dollars a barrel depending on contract and source. Tindex showed WTI at 90.24 dollars per barrel on 25 July, while more recent front-month and prompt quotes from Oilprice and MarketWatch have been around 74 to 84 dollars, which is still comfortably above a threshold that the market is pricing at 0% YES.[1][7][8][10][11]

That 0% reading is best read as a statement that the strike is set well below the current market, not as a view that oil cannot move on the day. In comparable cases, daily WTI settles are usually driven by the front-month contract’s trading range rather than broader narrative shifts, and recent historical data show settlements and intraday ranges moving several dollars even without a structural regime change.[2][5][9][13] The key point for traders is that the contract only needs to close above the specified level at the settlement window, so the relevant comparison is the prompt future at the close, not the spot headline during the session.[8][19]

The main catalysts to watch are the front-month futures move into the settlement, any surprise inventory or supply headlines, and whether the broader energy complex tracks the day’s risk tone. MarketWatch and Barchart’s contract pages show WTI’s prompt month can reprice quickly around the close, with the August contract and nearby month spreads changing as volume shifts into expiry.[5][8][14] If the market gets fresh OPEC+ commentary, geopolitical supply disruption, or a sharp dollar move, the close can gap away from the morning price, but absent that, the current cushion above the strike leaves the probability of a below-threshold settlement structurally low.[10][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.