Fed Decision in July?

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Market context

The Federal Open Market Committee’s July 2026 meeting will set the upper bound of the target federal funds rate, with this market resolving on the size of any change from the pre-meeting level. A 93% crowd-implied probability points to a steady consensus on the most likely outcome, and that tallies with the wider market view that the Fed has been reluctant to ease quickly after a run of sticky inflation readings and a still-resilient labour market. Similar pricing has appeared in recent Fed meetings, where expectations for a move have often been high but the Committee has repeatedly stayed on hold when incoming data have not shifted the balance decisively.

The main variables between now and 29 July are the next inflation prints, payrolls, unemployment and any sharp move in financial conditions. Fed calendars show the July meeting is scheduled as part of the regular eight-meeting cycle, so traders will be watching the June and early July data window closely, alongside the statement, dot plot and Chair Jay Powell’s press conference if the Committee does move. Recent coverage from Fidelity and J.P. Morgan both points to a central bank still seen as cautious, with cuts pushed further out and the bar for action remaining high unless inflation cools more clearly or labour-market slack rises faster than expected.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.