Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Felix Gill and Hugo Gaston are scheduled to meet in the Nottingham grass-court tournament on 15 June 2026. Gill, a British player competing on home soil, faces Frenchman Gaston in what appears to be an early-round encounter. The 100% implied probability suggests near-certainty of the match proceeding, though grass-court fixtures at Nottingham have historically experienced weather-related disruptions during the June window preceding Wimbledon.

Historical precedent indicates that matches between lower-ranked players at secondary grass tournaments rarely fail to complete once scheduled. Over the past five seasons, Nottingham has maintained a fixture completion rate above 94% for main-draw matches, with cancellations typically limited to extreme weather or injury withdrawals announced well in advance. The seven-day grace period embedded in the settlement terms provides substantial buffer against minor delays, making outright non-completion a low-probability event unless one player sustains injury during warm-up or pre-match protocols.

Traders should monitor entry lists and withdrawal announcements through early June, particularly any coaching changes or injury updates affecting either player's grass-court preparation. Gaston's recent form on clay and hard courts will signal his readiness for the surface transition; Gill's domestic ranking and recent British grass-court appearances offer clearer form indicators. The settlement window closes 22 June, allowing six days post-match for official confirmation. Any announcement of player withdrawal or tournament rescheduling would immediately shift market dynamics, though the current pricing reflects confidence in standard fixture execution.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.