Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Market context

The underlying event is the Lower bracket final of The International 2026 North America Closed Qualifier, where 4 Anchors and Ilmeria face the bug in a Best-of-3 match originally set for 4:00 PM ET on 26 June. Map 1 has already concluded with 4 Anchors and Ilmeria winning, putting them ahead 1–0 in the series[1].

Historically, teams holding a 1–0 lead in TI regional qualifier lower brackets convert to victory at roughly 68% across the last three years, yet the bug’s 69% winrate in this tournament suggests they remain a potent underdog capable of forcing a decider[2]. Comparable cases from TI14 and TI15 show that lower-bracket teams with sub-40% map winrates (like 4 Anchors and Ilmeria’s 35%) often struggle to close out matches against opponents with higher consistency, even when leading early[5].

Traders should monitor the scheduled start time for Map 2, currently pending confirmation, and watch for any roster changes or stream delays that could impact momentum[3]. The bug’s world ranking of 49 versus 4 Anchors and Ilmeria’s 42 indicates a narrow skill gap, but the latter’s recent form remains volatile with only two maps sampled in their performance data[4]. No official announcements on coaching changes or absences have been released as of the latest update from Gamers World, which verified Map 1’s outcome[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.