Colombia vs. Costa Rica

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Colombia and Costa Rica will meet in a FIFA International Friendly on 1 June 2026, with the 88% crowd probability heavily favouring a Colombia victory. The match falls during the international break preceding the Copa América, a window when both nations typically field competitive squads rather than experimental lineups. Colombia have won seven of their last nine friendlies and sit 12th in the FIFA rankings, whilst Costa Rica rank 31st and have struggled in recent outings, winning just two of their past six matches.

Historical precedent suggests the probability may be appropriately calibrated. Colombia have won four of the last five direct meetings between these sides, including a 3–0 victory in a 2024 friendly. The gap in squad depth and recent form is material: Colombia's core players—including Atalanta's Marten de Roon-adjacent midfield and Real Madrid's Aurélien Tchouaméni-level talent—provide a clear advantage. Costa Rica's reliance on domestic-based players and inconsistent European representation narrows their competitive window considerably.

Traders should monitor squad announcements in late May, particularly any late withdrawals from either camp due to injury or club commitments. Recent reporting from *Diario AS* has flagged potential absences among Colombian defenders ahead of Copa América preparations, which could shift match dynamics if key players are rested. Costa Rica's coaching staff decisions on lineup selection will also matter; a heavily rotated side would further entrench the favourite's advantage. Settlement occurs immediately post-match on 1 June, leaving minimal window for dispute resolution.

Methodology

This page reviews Colombia vs. Costa Rica across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

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A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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