Daegu Mayoral Election Winner

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Daegu votes for its next mayor on 3 June, and the race is still being shaped by candidate selection rather than any completed campaign. Daegu has long been the People Power Party’s strongest urban base, so a 0% YES price is best read as a reflection of the city’s entrenched conservative lean rather than certainty about the specific outcome. In comparable local races, the key question is usually whether the opposition can make the contest competitive enough to benefit from split conservative support, low turnout, or a late campaign shock rather than any wholesale swing in the city.

The main trader watchpoints are party nominations, candidate consolidation and turnout indicators. Chosun reported on 26 April that Choo Kyung-ho was nominated as the People Power Party’s candidate for Daegu mayor, while the Korea Times noted on 10 April that the Democratic Party had lagged badly in nominations for the city, underscoring how uneven the field remains. With the broader June local elections approaching, any late polling, alliance move or replacement triggered by a legal or campaign issue would matter more than national mood alone. The practical path to an upset would likely require an opposition candidate to narrow the gap quickly, while the People Power Party avoids intra-party division and keeps its base mobilised.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.