What will Gold (GC) settle at in June?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Gold futures for June 2026 are currently trading near $4,030, with the CME settlement price on 25 June recorded at $4,030.50[2]. This market resolves to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month on the final trading day of June 2026, meaning traders must watch the closing session on 30 June for the definitive figure[3]. If that day is shortened due to a holiday, the published settlement for that session still applies, or the most recent Active Month settlement if none is released[7].

Historically, gold has rarely breached $3,000 in a single month without sustained macroeconomic stress, making the current 5% YES probability for a settlement above $3,000 appear conservative given today’s $4,000+ baseline[1]. Comparable cases from 2020–2024 show that even during inflation spikes, monthly settlements stayed within 10% of the prior month’s average, suggesting the market is pricing in a stable, not volatile, outcome.

Traders should monitor the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes, released 24 June, and any unexpected shifts in US Treasury yields, which directly influence gold pricing[2]. The CVOL index, tracking 30-day implied volatility, remains a key dependency for spotting sudden risk spikes that could push prices beyond historical ranges[9]. No major supply disruptions are reported, so price movements will likely hinge on monetary policy signals rather than physical market shocks.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.