Highest temperature in Seoul on June 23?

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Market context

Seoul is currently experiencing a severe heat wave that has shattered June temperature records across South Korea, with 59 out of 97 weather stations logging their highest daily averages ever for the month[1]. Historical data for Seoul in June shows daily highs typically rising from 77°F to 81°F, rarely exceeding 87°F[2]. However, recent extremes are far more aggressive; Daegu reached an average of 30.7°C, while Busan hit 26.2°C, both setting new records since 1904 and 1907 respectively[1]. The all-time national record stands at 41.0°C in Hongcheon, and Seoul itself has previously soared to 39.6°C, indicating that while the current 0% probability for a specific high range seems cautious, the meteorological backdrop is unusually volatile and record-breaking[3][8].

Traders must monitor the immediate trajectory of the high-pressure system over the North Pacific, which is driving the surge of hot, humid air from the southwest and sustaining these extreme conditions[1]. The settlement window ends on 23 June 2026, meaning the final resolution depends entirely on the peak temperature recorded at the Incheon International Airport Station on that specific day, sourced from Wunderground[3]. Recent historical data for Seoul in June 2026 shows a peak of 91°F (approximately 32.8°C) recorded on 19 June, suggesting temperatures are already near seasonal ceilings[4]. The critical catalyst is whether the heat wave intensifies further before the 23 June cutoff, as meteorologists have warned that the current system could push temperatures even higher if the high-pressure ridge remains stationary[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 23? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.