Discord IPO Closing Market Cap

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Discord has confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO in January 2026, aiming for a valuation exceeding $15 billion, yet no public listing date or pricing has been confirmed[1][2]. The market currently implies a 0% chance of an IPO occurring before June 30, 2026, reflecting deep scepticism about the company’s ability to navigate regulatory hurdles and market volatility within the remaining timeframe[2].

Historically, similar tech IPOs—such as Slack and Zoom—faced delays of 12 to 18 months after confidential filings due to shifting investor sentiment and disclosure requirements[2][4]. Discord’s private valuation has dropped 28% since mid-2025, now sitting at $8.53 billion, which may further complicate its ability to meet the $15 billion target without a significant market rebound[2].

Traders should monitor for any official announcement from Discord regarding a confirmed IPO timeline, as well as broader Nasdaq market conditions and investor appetite for gaming-sector listings[2][4]. Reuters reported the confidential filing in January 2026, but the company has not yet disclosed a specific schedule, leaving the outcome dependent on external market readiness[2]. Without a confirmed date before the settlement window closes, the market will resolve to “No IPO by June 30, 2026”[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.