0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Platform comparison

Market context

Zero ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz occurred on ten of the last nineteen days in April 2026, following a 90% collapse in crude export voyages after the June 17 US–Iran deal initially promised immediate reopening [1]. Despite the memorandum requiring Iran to restore traffic to pre-war levels by mid-July, commercial shipping was suspended again shortly after a brief reopening, leaving daily counts near zero against a normal baseline of roughly 60 vessels [2][5]. This volatility mirrors March 2026, when tanker traffic dropped to absolute zero as P&I clubs withdrew war-risk cover, forcing carriers to divert via the Cape of Good Hope [3].

Traders must monitor the July 19 deadline for the US to fully lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports, a prerequisite for Iran’s commitment to normalise flow under the agreement [2]. Any delay in blockade removal or a resurgence of drone attacks on vessels—such as the strike on the Panama-flagged tanker Kiku in June—could trigger another shutdown [6]. IMF PortWatch data remains the sole settlement trigger; if AIS tracking is disabled again, reported arrivals may fall to zero even if physical transits continue, as seen when ships ran the strait with AIS off in early 2026 [3]. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES reflects confidence that the June deal will hold, but the strait’s closure history suggests fragility.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.