Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?

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Market context

Iran has recently struck vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, directly undermining peace talks with the US and threatening safe passage for commercial shipping[1]. This aggressive posture, including missile launches against tankers and drone deployments, signals Tehran’s reliance on maritime dominance as leverage rather than a willingness to issue binding non-aggression pledges[5].

Historically, Iran’s public commitments in this region have been conditional and reversible, often tied to immediate negotiation cycles rather than standalone policy shifts. While Oman previously reported Iran affirming commitment to toll-free safe passage following diplomatic meetings, such statements lacked the unambiguous, declarative force required to resolve this market[1]. Past instances where the US demanded a public pledge to stop firing on ships resulted in continued ambiguity or tactical violations, keeping the probability of a firm, unconditional commitment low[4][8].

Traders should monitor the outcome of ongoing negotiations in Oman, where the US is insisting Iran publicly state it will stop attacks and open all lanes[8]. A qualifying announcement must be a clear, official declaration from the Iranian government or an authorised representative, explicitly committing not to attack ships transiting the strait[1]. With the settlement window closing today at 23:59 ET, any delay in a formal statement or continued harassment of vessels will likely confirm the market’s 2% YES probability[9]. Recent condemnation from twenty-two nations underscores the international pressure, yet Iran’s adamant stance on maintaining administrative control over traffic suggests a formal commitment remains unlikely[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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