What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?

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Market context

Washington and Tehran are still talking through Omani and Pakistani intermediaries, but the nuclear issue remains the main sticking point. Recent reporting in the last fortnight has repeatedly said the US is pressing Iran to accept a moratorium on enrichment and tighter limits on its stockpile, while Iranian proposals have continued to seek sanctions relief, unfreezing of assets and an end to hostilities. That makes any agreement allowing continued enrichment before 31 May a narrower outcome than a simple ceasefire or partial de-escalation.

The historical read is that this has been a hard red line for the Trump administration. Trump’s earlier demands, as reflected in reporting on the current negotiations, have centred on Iran abandoning enrichment rather than preserving it in any form, so a deal that explicitly accepts continued Iranian enrichment would require a noticeable shift in US position. The current 23% implied probability is therefore more consistent with the chance of a limited interim understanding, or a pause in strikes, than with a formal acceptance of Iran’s right to enrich.

For traders, the main catalysts are any fresh statement from Trump, confirmation of a new memo or framework from the mediators, and signs that Gulf pressure is forcing a softer US line. Reuters-style coverage has indicated that discussions are active but positions remain far apart, with the US also weighing military options in parallel. Watch for whether any text mentions enrichment caps, monitoring, or a limited civil programme; those details would matter here because the market settles YES if the US accepts continued enrichment in any future form, even with restrictions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.