Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world's most strategically contested waterways, with roughly one-fifth of global oil transit passing through its 21-nautical-mile width. Warship transits by non-regional powers remain rare but not unprecedented, typically occurring during periods of heightened geopolitical tension or as deliberate shows of force. The strait's legal status—recognised internationally as a passage where vessels have rights of transit—creates a technical pathway for naval operations, though Iran's government has historically objected to foreign military presence and occasionally threatened to restrict passage.

Historical precedent suggests such transits cluster around specific flashpoints rather than occurring routinely. The United States Navy has conducted freedom-of-navigation operations through the strait multiple times since 2012, whilst other Western navies have made occasional passages during periods of elevated regional tensions. The 4% implied probability reflects the baseline rarity of non-US warship transits specifically, as American operations are already established practice. Any significant escalation involving Iran's nuclear programme, direct military confrontation, or broader regional conflict would substantially increase the likelihood of additional naval powers moving vessels through the waterway.

Traders should monitor announcements regarding Iran's nuclear negotiations, any military incidents in the Persian Gulf, and statements from regional powers about freedom of navigation. Recent reporting from Reuters and regional defence analysts indicates that whilst tensions remain elevated, no imminent catalyst for non-routine warship movements has materialised. The settlement window extends through mid-2026, providing ample time for geopolitical conditions to shift materially.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.