Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?

Platform comparison

Market context

Typhoon Dolphin has already affected Japanese territory, with reporting on 4 August saying it battered the Ogasawara Islands and was expected to reach Okinawa later in the week. That puts the market’s 100% crowd-implied yes reading in line with the public forecast narrative, because the resolution only requires the centre of circulation to cross the coastline of any Japanese territory, not a strike on the main islands.[1][13]

Comparable typhoon markets tend to move sharply once a storm gets inside the short-range forecast cone, especially when the first Japanese landfalls are remote islands rather than densely populated prefectures. Here, the relevant precedent is that the first confirmed Japanese impact came early, and later updates framed the main uncertainty as which part of Japan would be hit next rather than whether Japan would be hit at all.[1][3][17] That makes the remaining task for traders mainly about confirming the exact landfall sequence and whether the centre crosses Okinawa or another Ryukyu island before the settlement cutoff.

The key catalysts are the Japan Meteorological Agency’s position advisories and any credible wire or broadcast reports that explicitly place the centre over Japanese land.[1] In practice, traders should watch the next JMA track updates, local Okinawa and Ryukyu warnings, and the timing of any landfall relative to the 15 August deadline, since the market can resolve on a single advisory if it shows the storm over land.[1] Reports on 7 August already described Dolphin as near or moving into Okinawa, which is the main near-term dependency for this market’s final outcome.[19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.