Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by 2026?

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Market context

Kharg Island remains a heavily defended Iranian oil terminal in the northern Persian Gulf, and any change in control would require a sustained occupation or transfer of authority, not just damage to facilities or a brief military landing. The current 0% implied probability is consistent with that threshold: even after the reported March 2026 strike on the island, the available reports describe disruption to infrastructure rather than the loss of Iranian sovereignty.

Historically, Kharg has been treated as a strategic choke point because it handles the vast majority of Iran’s crude exports, with estimates in recent reporting ranging from about 90% of exports to almost all of them. That concentration makes the island a recurring target in conflict scenarios, but it also means that market pricing should separate operational disruption from regime control. Comparable cases in the Gulf show that attacks on oil terminals can interrupt flows for days or weeks without altering who governs the territory.

For a “Yes” resolution, traders would need clear evidence of an enduring change on the ground: an occupying force, an internationally backed interim authority, or a formal announcement that Iranian military and administrative control has ended. The key catalysts are any follow-on strikes, amphibious or blockade developments, and statements from the U.S., Iran, or Gulf states on the status of the island and nearby shipping routes. Recent coverage from Britannica and TRT World underscores that Kharg’s importance is tied to export concentration, but not to any current sign of transfer of control.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.