Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| A | 50% |
| B | 50% |
| C | 50% |
| D | 50% |
| E | 50% |
| Other | 50% |
| BLG | 32% |
| HLE | 26% |
| T1 | 13% |
| GEN | 12% |
| KC | 11% |
| WE | 10% |
| DCG | 6% |
| TLAW | 5% |
| LYON | 3% |
| NIP | 3% |
| G2 | 1% |
| TES | 1% |
| JDG | 1% |
| DK | 1% |
| AL | 0% |
| KT | 0% |
| FLY | 0% |
| WBG | 0% |
| TSW | 0% |
| CFO | 0% |
| C9 | 0% |
| MKOI | 0% |
| IG | 0% |
| GAM | 0% |
| BFX | 0% |
Market context
The final 2026 Worlds cycle will decide which team finishes top of the official Global Power Rankings, and the current 26% crowd price implies the field is still highly open rather than pointing to a clear favourite. On the live 2026 table, Hanwha Life Esports, Bilibili Gaming, Gen.G and T1 are clustered tightly at the top, with only small Elo-style gaps separating them, which means one strong Worlds run can still overturn the order.[1][5]
That low-to-mid probability fits the recent pattern for this market: the ranking has repeatedly shifted late in the year as international results reweighted the standings, while regional regular-season form alone has not been enough to lock in first place.[2][6] The practical lesson is that the winner is usually the team that peaks at the right time, not the one that looked best in spring or summer, and tie-break logic also matters if the final points are close.[4]
Traders should watch Worlds qualification, roster announcements, and any coaching or substitution changes over the rest of the year, because this ranking is built from Tier 1 results and is updated after major events rather than by reputation.[3][6] The main dependency is whether the current top group arrives at Worlds with stable line-ups and enough international wins to separate from the pack; any injury, benching or late roster shuffle would matter more here than in a standard league table.[4][6]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for League of Legends Global Power Rankings Post Worlds: Rank 1. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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