Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains well below normal shipping levels, with IMF PortWatch showing reduced traffic since late February and USNI reporting commercial transits at their lowest level since Operation Epic Fury started. That leaves a large gap to the market’s trigger: a 7-day moving average of at least 60 arrivals. The current 33% YES price implies traders see some chance of a rapid rebound, but the recent data still point the other way. A move back to the threshold would require a sustained recovery in eastbound and westbound calls, not just isolated days of higher traffic.

Past episodes of maritime disruption in the strait have typically unwound only when the security picture improved and carriers had clearer route certainty. IMF PortWatch’s event page for attacks on commercial ships shows the traffic shock has already lasted for months, which makes a June reset harder than a short-lived interruption. Kalshi’s wider timing market also prices only a modest chance of normal traffic before September, suggesting the crowd expects any recovery to be gradual rather than immediate.

For traders, the main catalysts are security developments and any formal de-escalation around shipping lanes, insurance, or naval protection. Watch for IMF PortWatch updates, Lloyd’s List shipping data, and any official statements that indicate carriers are resuming regular transits through the Arabian Sea approach. Because the settlement requires a published 7-day moving average at or above 60 by 30 June, even a late-June improvement would need to hold long enough to lift the rolling average, so one-off spikes or partial reroutings would not be enough.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.