Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| A | 50% |
| B | 50% |
| C | 50% |
| D | 50% |
| E | 50% |
| F | 50% |
| G | 50% |
| H | 50% |
| I | 50% |
| J | 50% |
| Other | 50% |
| Ben Shelton | 12% |
| Arthur Fils | 6% |
| Tommy Paul | 5% |
| Brandon Nakashima | 5% |
| Jakub Mensik | 5% |
| Casper Ruud | 4% |
| Frances Tiafoe | 4% |
| Matteo Arnaldi | 4% |
| Hubert Hurkacz | 3% |
| Tallon Griekspoor | 3% |
| Mariano Navone | 3% |
| Nuno Borges | 3% |
| Cameron Norrie | 3% |
| Alex Michelsen | 3% |
| Alexei Popyrin | 3% |
| Luciano Darderi | 2% |
| Arthur Rinderknech | 2% |
| Jannik Sinner | 0% |
| Alexander Zverev | 0% |
| Daniil Medvedev | 0% |
| Andrey Rublev | 0% |
| Grigor Dimitrov | 0% |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 0% |
| Taylor Fritz | 0% |
| Ugo Humbert | 0% |
| Holger Rune | 0% |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | 0% |
| Alejandro Tabilo | 0% |
| Karen Khachanov | 0% |
| Sebastian Korda | 0% |
| Nicolas Jarry | 0% |
| Alexander Bublik | 0% |
| Jack Draper | 0% |
| Gael Monfils | 0% |
| Adrian Mannarino | 0% |
| Jordan Thompson | 0% |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 0% |
| Marcos Giron | 0% |
| Tomas Machac | 0% |
| Pedro Martinez | 0% |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 0% |
| Fabian Marozsan | 0% |
| Flavio Cobolli | 0% |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | 0% |
| Lorenzo Sonego | 0% |
| Roman Safiullin | 0% |
| Denis Shapovalov | 0% |
| Gabriel Diallo | 0% |
| Milos Raonic | 0% |
| Kei Nishikori | 0% |
| Vasek Pospisil | 0% |
| Pablo Carreno Busta | 0% |
| Dusan Lajovic | 0% |
| Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | 0% |
| Corentin Moutet | 0% |
| Jaume Munar | 0% |
| Roberto Carballes Baena | 0% |
| Dominik Koepfer | 0% |
| Facundo Diaz Acosta | 0% |
| Max Purcell | 0% |
| Aleksandar Vukic | 0% |
| Marton Fucsovics | 0% |
| Hugo Gaston | 0% |
| Federico Coria | 0% |
| Sumit Nagal | 0% |
| Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0% |
| Rinky Hijikata | 0% |
| Christopher O'Connell | 0% |
| Daniel Altmaier | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 50% probability to atp 1000 montreal: winner. This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 National Bank Open (ATP Masters 1000, Montreal), currently scheduled for August 2 – August 13, 2026. If this tournament is postponed after…
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for ATP 1000 Montreal: Winner. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade ATP 1000 Montreal: Winner on Sport Prediction
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