# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

MrBeast's next YouTube upload will accumulate a certain number of views within its first 24 hours, with the market assessing whether that figure will exceed a specific threshold. The creator's channel has consistently ranked among the platform's most-viewed, with recent uploads regularly surpassing 50 million views in the opening day. Historical performance across his catalogue shows considerable variance depending on content type, thumbnail appeal, and algorithmic promotion at the moment of release.

MrBeast's day-one view counts have ranged from approximately 40 million to over 100 million across his recent output. Videos centred on high-stakes challenges or collaborations with other prominent creators have typically performed at the upper end of this range, whilst more experimental or niche content has occasionally underperformed relative to his channel average. The 59% implied probability suggests the market is pricing in a moderately strong performance, consistent with his recent track record but acknowledging the inherent unpredictability of algorithmic distribution and viewer engagement patterns on any given release date.

Traders should monitor the timing of the next upload relative to major competing releases, platform algorithm shifts, and any announcements regarding collaborations or content themes. MrBeast's upload schedule has historically been irregular, with gaps ranging from days to weeks between releases. The settlement window closing in June 2026 provides a defined timeframe, though the market's lowest bracket resolution applies if no video posts by 30 June 2026. Real-time view counts become publicly visible immediately upon upload, enabling precise resolution once the 24-hour window closes.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.