Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Platform comparison

Market context

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below normal, with the market needing IMF PortWatch to print a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls on any day before month-end. USNI reported on 1 May that commercial transits were at their lowest level since the start of Operation Epic Fury and that traffic was still less than 10% of pre-conflict levels, a gap that underlines why the current 5% implied chance is so low. Earlier commentary on the basin also pointed to a near-shutdown in ship movements, with traders, insurers and operators treating the corridor as a high-risk route rather than a routine one.

For a Yes to land by 31 May, the key question is not whether a few more vessels appear, but whether enough regular services resume quickly enough to lift a 7-day average above the threshold. That would likely require a marked easing in military pressure, fewer disruptions to routing and insurance, and a return of scheduled tanker and container transits at scale. Watch for fresh PortWatch updates, any shipping-security notices from UKMTO or joint maritime centres, and signals from operators on whether vessels are willing to re-enter the route. The market can only resolve on IMF PortWatch data, so any bounce in AIS coverage or reporting completeness will matter as much as the physical traffic itself.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.