Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
68% | 32% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
68% | 32% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| October 31 | 68% |
| August 31 | 48% |
| July 31 | 6% |
| July 15 | 2% |
Market context
Iran is poised to begin collecting mandatory service fees for commercial vessels using the Strait of Hormuz once a current 60-day toll-free negotiation window expires, a move that directly contradicts US demands for permanent free passage. Historical precedents show Iran has consistently framed such charges as fees for navigational support and environmental safeguards rather than transit tolls, a semantic distinction it maintains despite open US objections. The 14-point memorandum signed earlier this month explicitly guarantees toll-free access only for the initial two-month period, leaving the door open for future charges once negotiations conclude, which aligns with Iran’s deputy foreign minister’s recent warning that Tehran will impose its own fees if no agreement is reached with Oman.
Traders should monitor the expiration date of the current waiver, announced by Iran’s Strait of Hormuz authority on 19 June, which eliminates charges for security and insurance services until the negotiation phase ends. The critical catalyst is whether Iran proceeds with its stated plan to start charging ships for services immediately after this timeframe, as reported by the semi-official Tasnim News Agency, or if diplomatic pressure from Washington forces a reversal. Key dependencies include the outcome of ongoing talks with Oman regarding voluntary versus mandatory fee structures and any new announcements from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has previously enforced a rigorous vetting system with fees for foreign-flagged vessels since mid-March.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Iran charges Hormuz fees by 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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