"The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

Christopher Nolan’s *The Odyssey*, starring Matt Damon and adapted from Homer’s epic, opens in US theatres on 17 July 2026, with domestic box office figures for the 17–19 July weekend set to determine the outcome of this prediction market. The film has no competing wide release from a major studio that weekend and is selling out IMAX screens a year in advance, positioning it for a historic domestic launch [2][3].

Historical precedent for Nolan’s releases suggests the current 0% YES probability is misaligned with reality; *Oppenheimer* tracked at $40M–$50M before opening to $82.4M, while current tracking for *The Odyssey* spans $80M–$132M with an average near $118M [2][4]. Box Office Pro has upgraded its long-range forecast to $100M–$120M, and early ticket sales indicate a domestic opening over $100M is already secured [5][7].

Traders should monitor the finalisation of the three-day domestic gross on The Numbers website once studio estimates are replaced with actuals, as the market resolves to the higher bracket if the value falls between two ranges [2]. Key catalysts include the confirmation of premium large format (PLF) screen utilisation and the absence of any post-opening weekend adjustments that might alter the final 17–19 July tally [2][10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.