US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

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Market context

The real-world event is a June 2026 U.S.-Iran written arrangement that starts a 60-day process towards a fuller nuclear settlement, after the two sides announced an initial deal that paused hostilities and set out terms on sanctions relief, oil exports and uranium limits.[1][3][4] That makes the market more about whether the diplomacy survives long enough to produce a qualifying signed or adopted instrument by 31 August than about the headline ceasefire itself.[1][3]

The closest historical guide is the 2015 JCPOA process: interim understandings often unlock detailed talks, but final text can slip or unravel if technical issues, sanctions relief, or verification terms remain unresolved. CSIS says the June framework was due to be signed in Geneva and then followed 60 days of technical negotiations over Iran’s enriched stockpile and enrichment capacity, which underlines how much still has to be nailed down before a “final deal” exists in market terms.[3] Reuters also reported that any final accord would need to settle oil sanctions, frozen assets and nuclear limits, not just the stop-start ceasefire language already announced.[4]

For traders, the key catalysts are whether the planned Geneva signing or any successor drafting session actually happens, whether the 60-day timetable is kept, and whether Washington and Tehran continue to align on sequencing for sanctions relief and nuclear steps.[3][4] A fresh Reuters report said the draft includes a sanctions waiver on oil, a freeze on new sanctions and the release of Iranian assets, but those are still described as part of the negotiation package rather than a completed final instrument.[4] Any delay, public dispute over inspection access, or renewed fighting in the region would lower the odds of a binding deal before the settlement window closes.[1][2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.