Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The 2026 domestic box office crown has already been claimed by *The Super Mario Galaxy Movie*, which shattered records with a $372.5 million opening weekend, decisively outpacing all other releases including *Toy Story 5* and *Project Hail Mary* [2][4]. This figure dwarfs the $160 million debut of *Toy Story 5* and the $80.6 million start for Ryan Gosling’s *Project Hail Mary*, establishing a benchmark that no film released later in the year is currently tracking to surpass [2][3].

Historically, December tentpoles like *Avengers: Doomsday* often dominate global totals but frequently trail summer blockbusters in domestic opening weekends due to holiday fragmentation and international weighting [5]. The current 0% probability for "Yes" reflects the market’s recognition that *Super Mario Galaxy*’s mid-year record is unlikely to be broken, as no upcoming release has generated pre-release tracking suggesting a domestic opening exceeding $372 million [5].

Traders should monitor final domestic opening weekend confirmations from The Numbers for any late-year surprise, particularly for *Avengers: Doomsday* (18 December) and *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*, though early industry polls still position *Super Mario Galaxy* as the definitive leader [5]. Any significant shift would require a studio to announce a record-breaking domestic preview or opening day that exceeds current projections, which remain firmly below the existing record [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.