Internet Access restored in Iran by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Iran's nationwide internet blackout began on 28 February 2026 during active military engagement with the United States and Israel. The Iranian government implemented the shutdown as a defensive measure and information control mechanism during the conflict. This market asks whether general internet connectivity will be restored by 30 April 2026—a roughly two-month window from the blackout's onset.

Historical precedent suggests extended internet shutdowns in Iran tend to persist for weeks rather than months when tied to military or security crises. The 2019 shutdown lasted approximately one week; the 2022 protests saw intermittent connectivity restored within days despite ongoing unrest. However, those incidents occurred during domestic crises rather than active international military conflict. A shutdown during wartime presents a different calculus: the Iranian state faces stronger incentives to maintain information control, whilst the technical infrastructure for restoration may itself be damaged by military action. The current 0% implied probability reflects the market's assessment that restoration within 61 days remains highly unlikely given the conflict's ongoing nature.

Traders should monitor ceasefire announcements, diplomatic negotiations, and damage assessments of Iran's internet infrastructure. Reports from international organisations like the UN or credible news agencies documenting restoration efforts will be critical to settlement. Any formal peace agreement or significant de-escalation between the parties would substantially increase restoration likelihood, though even post-conflict, Iranian authorities have historically delayed reconnection for weeks whilst reasserting control over information flows.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.