Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran's nuclear programme has remained a central point of contention in Middle Eastern geopolitics for two decades. The question of whether Tehran will publicly commit to halting uranium enrichment by May 2026 hinges on the trajectory of diplomatic negotiations and the political calculations of Iran's leadership. Currently priced at 12% probability, the market reflects the substantial structural barriers to such an agreement, given Iran's historical resistance to abandoning enrichment capabilities and the fractured state of multilateral nuclear diplomacy.

Historical precedent offers limited encouragement. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) of 2015 saw Iran agree to restrictions on enrichment levels and stockpiles, yet that agreement unravelled after the U.S. withdrawal in 2018. Iran subsequently resumed enrichment at higher levels, including near-weapons-grade concentrations. Previous negotiations have typically resulted in temporary constraints rather than complete cessation, and Iran has consistently framed enrichment as a sovereign right tied to domestic energy needs. The gap between a temporary freeze and a permanent public pledge to end enrichment entirely remains substantial.

Key catalysts include any resumption of formal U.S.–Iran talks, shifts in Israeli or American administrations' negotiating posture, and Iran's domestic political calendar. The International Atomic Energy Agency's quarterly reports on Iran's nuclear activities will continue to shape market sentiment. Any announcement of direct negotiations or multilateral frameworks involving major powers would likely move the probability significantly. The compressed timeframe—less than eighteen months from the market's current date—means that meaningful diplomatic movement would need to accelerate considerably for resolution to "Yes".

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.