MLB: Stolen Bases Leader

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 Major League Baseball regular season will determine which player steals the most bases, a market currently implying an 8% chance for the stated outcome. Historical data from comparable speed-heavy seasons shows that the betting favourite, Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz, typically carries an implied probability near 25% based on his +300 odds, yet the actual leader often fluctuates due to injury or tactical shifts. FanGraphs projections place De La Cruz and Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Chandler Simpson on equal footing with 41 stolen bases each, suggesting a tight contest where the tie-breaker rules—fewer caught stealings, then higher on-base percentage—will likely decide the winner rather than a clear statistical dominance[1][4].

Traders must monitor mid-season roster announcements and injury reports, particularly for De La Cruz, whose aggressive style risks high caught-stealing counts that could trigger the secondary tie-breaker. Recent beat reporting from Fox Sports highlights Nasim Nuñez of the Washington Nationals as the current season leader with 31 steals, a figure that underscores the volatility of the leaderboard as the NL East and AL Central divisions remain competitive[2][3]. Key dependencies include the Rays' offensive strategy, which has propelled Simpson to 19 steals already, and the Diamondbacks' reliance on Corbin Carroll, who is projected for 33 steals but faces defensive adjustments that could alter his opportunities[4][7]. Any shift in coaching tactics regarding base-running aggression or a key absence due to injury will drastically reshape the probability landscape before the settlement window closes in September 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.