"The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The film’s opening weekend is in its first reported box-office window, with the key question being whether its four-day domestic gross lands in the range implied by current tracking. Recent forecasts have moved up from an initial $71 million domestic Friday-to-Sunday call to roughly $90 million to $100 million, with Box Office Theory putting the four-day Memorial Day frame at $86 million to $109 million and studio tracking near $80 million. That leaves a wide but clearly positive band of outcomes, which is why the market’s 78% YES price points to an expectation that the film clears the lower bracket comfortably rather than scraping through on the margin.

Comparable Star Wars releases offer the main context. A four-day opening above $80 million would still trail the larger franchise launches of the Disney era, and box-office commentary has repeatedly framed the film as likely to finish well below the biggest tentpoles while still outperforming Solo: A Star Wars Story’s domestic opening. Reporting from Boxofficepro and coverage cited by Box Office Theory suggest marketing has improved the outlook in recent weeks, which matters because Memorial Day releases can benefit from strong walk-up business if awareness broadens late. The recent upward revision is the main reason the market sits well above even money, but it is not a guarantee that the weekend lands in the top end of forecasts.

Traders should watch final pre-release tracking, any late marketing push from Disney and Lucasfilm, and whether Friday grosses indicate stronger-than-expected turnout heading into the holiday frame. The daily box office figures on The Numbers page will determine settlement once the four-day opening is final, not studio estimates, so the focus should stay on reported domestic receipts through Monday. If initial daily numbers run hot versus tracking, the probability of a higher bracket rises quickly; if the film opens closer to the low end of the current forecast band, the market may still resolve YES but with less room to spare.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.