"Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the domestic opening weekend box office gross of the historical epic *Young Washington*, released on July 3, 2026, during the Fourth of July holiday. Early tracking suggests the film could open between $23 million and $35 million, with some analysts projecting a total domestic run of up to $145 million[1]. However, current figures show a domestic gross of only $7,597,688, indicating a significant shortfall from initial expectations[2]. The market’s 0% YES probability implies the crowd believes the film will fail to meet even the lowest bracket, likely due to poor performance against competitors like *Minions & Monsters* and *Toy Story 5*, which dominate the same weekend[3].

Historically, historical epics released during July 4 weekends often struggle unless they have massive star power or universal acclaim, as seen with *Braveheart* in 1995, which succeeded due to strong reviews and cultural resonance[6]. In contrast, recent similar films like *The Patriot* (2000) opened modestly and faded quickly, mirroring the current trajectory of *Young Washington* if early reviews remain lukewarm[4]. The catalysts traders should watch include finalised 3-day box office figures (July 3–5) from The Numbers, which will determine the market resolution once studio estimates are replaced with actual data[5]. Additionally, any sudden shifts in social media sentiment or critical reception, as noted in recent coverage by Slate, could influence the final gross[7]. Traders must monitor these dependencies closely, as the market resolves to the higher bracket if the value falls between two ranges.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.