Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
Market context
MrBeast’s latest long-form upload is being measured over its first 120 hours on YouTube, with the final settlement tied to the public view count at the end of that window. The current crowd view of 0% on the YES side suggests the market is effectively treating the outcome as either already priced into a specific bracket or too stale to support a live position, so the only relevant question is where the video sits against the market’s bins once the 5-day clock closes.
For context, MrBeast’s recent launches have typically opened at extraordinary scale, then slowed as the initial recommendation surge fades. His channel remains the largest individual creator account on YouTube, with subscriber estimates above 400 million and recent monthly viewing in the billions, which means even modest changes in thumbnail performance, retention, or homepage distribution can move day-five totals materially. When his uploads break out, the early trajectory is often strong enough to clear the top brackets well before the 120-hour mark; when they underperform, the curve can flatten quickly after the first two or three days.
Traders should watch for any changes to upload cadence, title or thumbnail edits, and whether YouTube continues pushing the video through Browse and Suggested rather than Shorts or external traffic. Recent creator-analytics coverage, including Viewstats and Social Blade tracking, has shown how sharply MrBeast’s totals can diverge from expectations depending on recommendation share and audience retention. If there is a follow-up post, a pinned comment update, or a second upload that diverts attention, that can affect late-stage view growth even if the video’s first-day numbers were strong.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade # of views of MrBeast video day 5? on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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