Bitcoin price on June 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on Bitcoin's closing price at noon Eastern Time on 4 June 2026, using the 1-minute candle from Binance's BTC/USDT pair. The settlement window extends to 16:00 UTC that day, allowing for a defined resolution point rather than daily close data. If the price falls between two bracket thresholds, the higher bracket determines the outcome.

Bitcoin's intraday volatility at specific timestamps has historically made noon-UTC-equivalent prices difficult to predict with precision more than months ahead. The 0% crowd probability reflects the inherent difficulty in forecasting spot prices across a 18-month horizon, where macroeconomic shifts, regulatory announcements, and technical developments create substantial uncertainty. Comparable fixed-time price markets typically see meaningful probability only within weeks of settlement, as near-term technical levels and event calendars become identifiable.

Key variables affecting Bitcoin's mid-day price on that date include Federal Reserve policy trajectory, institutional adoption trends, and any major regulatory developments in the US or EU. Geopolitical tensions, mining difficulty adjustments, and spot exchange-traded fund flows have historically moved the asset significantly. Traders should monitor announcements from the SEC regarding cryptocurrency oversight, statements from major central banks on digital assets, and any significant blockchain network upgrades scheduled before June 2026. The specific noon ET timestamp introduces additional noise, as intraday swings of several percentage points are routine during US trading hours.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on June 4? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.