Ethereum price on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on the closing price of Ethereum against USDT on Binance at noon Eastern Time on 26 May 2026, using the 1-minute candle data. The settlement window extends to 16:00 ET that same day, allowing for any intraday volatility to settle before final resolution. Binance's ETH/USDT pair remains one of the most liquid cryptocurrency trading venues globally, with consistent volume across all time frames.

Historical precedent suggests that single-day price targets for assets with 24-hour trading cycles carry substantial uncertainty. Ethereum's price action on specific dates has historically been shaped by macroeconomic releases, regulatory announcements, and shifts in broader cryptocurrency sentiment rather than predictable patterns. The 0% crowd probability reflects either extreme confidence in a particular price range or sparse trading activity on this specific resolution bracket.

Traders monitoring this market should track scheduled events in the fortnight preceding 26 May 2026, including Federal Reserve communications, inflation data releases, and any material announcements from Ethereum's development teams regarding protocol upgrades or staking changes. Spot price movements on major exchanges often accelerate around coordinated news cycles. Additionally, the relationship between Bitcoin's price action and Ethereum correlation typically strengthens during periods of broader market stress, which could influence noon pricing on the settlement date.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.