How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?

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Market context

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed to a near standstill as renewed US airstrikes on Iran triggered immediate retaliation, halting the brief traffic surge that followed the June ceasefire. Just two tankers passed through the choke point in the early hours of Thursday, with outbound commercial movements effectively zero over the preceding 72 hours as shipping risks escalated sharply [1][5]. This abrupt reversal from the 73-vessel spike recorded on 26 June—when sanctions were lifted under the initial deal—frames the current 82% YES probability as a bet on continued disruption rather than a return to normalcy [3].

Historical patterns from the late February war onset show that even short-lived reopenings are fragile; the 38 confirmed crossings reported on 6 July were quickly overshadowed by the evacuation plan suspension that halted momentum by Friday [2][3]. The current bottleneck crisis, marked by zero verified outbound movements, suggests the settlement window of 6–12 July will likely capture minimal transit calls, aligning with the crowd’s high confidence in a low-total outcome [1].

Traders must monitor the IMF Portwatch finalisation schedule, as data for each date only counts once the next day’s point is available, and watch for any announcement regarding the US-Iran memorandum’s maritime resumption clause [4][9]. With the strait officially closed to commercial shipping following the brief reopening, the primary catalyst is whether Tehran’s retaliation forces a permanent shutdown or allows a limited trickle of tankers before 12 July [6]. Any escalation in Gulf attacks will further suppress transit numbers, reinforcing the downside risk for the market.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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