Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed by more than 95% since the Iran war began, with daily crossings plummeting from a pre-war average of 75–125 vessels to just a handful[7]. This stark historical baseline frames the current 46% YES probability: while traffic remains severely depressed, recent data shows a tentative rebound, with 25 commercial vessels traversing the strait on a single Thursday—the highest volume since April[1]. The agreement between the US and Iran, finalized on 17 June, guarantees commercial navigation will commence immediately, and the US must fully lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports by 19 July[1]. If this diplomatic commitment holds, the probability of at least one transit by July 31 becomes highly plausible, though the market remains cautious given the volatility.

Traders should monitor two critical catalysts before the settlement window closes: the 19 July deadline for the US to lift its naval blockade and the subsequent 60-day toll-free navigation window that begins once the blockade ends[1]. Any delay in the blockade lift or a sudden imposition of tolls by Iran could disrupt the nascent recovery in transit numbers. Additionally, ongoing GPS jamming and AIS spoofing in the region, as noted by IMF PortWatch, may obscure real vessel movements, making finalized daily data from PortWatch the only reliable metric for resolution[2]. Watch for official announcements from the US State Department or Iranian maritime authorities regarding the blockade status, as these will directly determine whether commercial vessels can safely pass through the strait in the coming weeks.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.