Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tiger Woods has no known federal criminal conviction or pending charges that would typically warrant a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve. Woods was arrested in May 2017 on a DUI charge in Jupiter, Florida, but pleaded no contest to reckless driving in July 2017, receiving probation and a suspended licence rather than criminal conviction. His only documented brush with federal jurisdiction came through civil litigation and regulatory matters unrelated to criminal law, making a pardon functionally unnecessary and historically unprecedented for a professional athlete in his circumstances.

Presidential pardons and commutations are typically reserved for individuals convicted of federal crimes seeking sentence reduction or exoneration. Comparable cases—such as Trump's 2020 commutation of Roger Stone's sentence or his 2021 pardon of Steve Bannon—involved defendants with actual federal convictions. Woods lacks this prerequisite. The 1% implied probability reflects the mathematical possibility of an extraordinary political gesture rather than any substantive legal mechanism or precedent. No credible reporting has suggested Woods faces federal charges or that Trump has indicated any intention to issue such a pardon.

Traders should monitor whether Woods becomes subject to federal prosecution, which would be the only catalyst rendering this market materially relevant. Trump's second term began in January 2025, establishing the window for any potential action. The settlement deadline of 30 June 2026 provides an 18-month observation period. Absent a federal indictment or formal charges against Woods, the probability should remain anchored near zero, as pardoning a non-convicted individual would represent an unprecedented departure from established pardon conventions.

Methodology

This page reviews Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.