Colombia Presidential Election

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Colombia goes to the polls on 31 May for the first round of its presidential election, with a possible run-off on 21 June if no candidate clears 50% of valid votes. The latest polling has Iván Cepeda, the left-wing Historic Pact candidate and ally of outgoing president Gustavo Petro, in front on 31.9%, ahead of Abelardo de la Espriella on 18.2% and Sergio Fajardo on 8.5%, according to Invamer. Several other familiar names, including Claudia López and Vicky Dávila, remain in the low single digits, which helps explain why the market is still reading a fragmented field rather than a settled front-runner.

Historically, Colombia’s presidential contests often tighten between the first round and the run-off, especially when anti-establishment or left-leaning candidates must consolidate votes from a broader centre-left bloc. A recent AS/COA poll tracker notes Cepeda, de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia as the main contenders, while an Invamer second-round simulation gave Cepeda narrow wins over Fajardo and a larger margin over de la Espriella. That matters for traders because first-round polling strength does not automatically translate into a clear run-off majority, particularly if the centre and right coalesce against the left.

The main catalysts are the final campaign stretch, any fresh polling, and the ability of smaller candidates to drop out or endorse a larger rival before 31 May. Candidate registration has already been confirmed, with running mates in place for the leading campaigns, and the campaign themes are likely to stay focused on security, corruption and the economy. If no candidate wins outright, the second round will be the decisive event, with the eventual result likely to hinge on whether anti-Petro voters unite behind a single challenger.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Colombia Presidential Election across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.