Colorado Governor Democratic Primary Winner

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the Democratic primary for Colorado’s governor, set for 30 June 2026, where former Senator Michael Bennet faces Attorney General Phil Weiser. Bennet currently leads in polling, holding 36% against Weiser’s 30% among likely voters, a gap just outside the margin of error with 34% undecided[1]. This contest mirrors past high-profile intra-party primaries where incumbents or established figures with national backing faced off against rising state officials, often resulting in narrow victories that defy early projections. In comparable cases, such as the 2018 Colorado Democratic gubernatorial primary, the candidate with deeper national ties and higher name recognition secured the nomination despite a strong challenger, framing the current 68% YES probability as plausible but not definitive[2].

Traders should monitor official candidate announcements from the Colorado Democratic Party, any shifts in undecided voter sentiment, and potential run-off scenarios if no candidate clears the threshold on 30 June[5]. A beat-reporter from CPR News noted that Weiser’s campaign has intensified its ground operations in the weeks leading up to the primary, suggesting a possible late surge that could narrow Bennet’s lead[3]. Key dependencies include the finalisation of the primary ballot, the timing of any second-round procedures, and whether external factors such as third-party interference or coalition-building alter the vote distribution. The settlement window ends 30 June 2026, meaning all resolution hinges on the first official announcement from the Colorado Democratic Party or overwhelming consensus from credible reporting[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Colorado Governor Democratic Primary Winner across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.