🎁 New traders: 100% Deposit Match up to $500 · 0% fees · instant USDC payoutsClaim it →
HomeGuideCryptoMarketsBlogLive odds →

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

How the sports market is pricing "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" right now — live quote plus platform comparison.

Gavin Newsom 20% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 12% Jon Ossoff 10% Kamala Harris 7% Volume: $1223.3M Liquidity: $64.7M Closes: 7 Nov 2028
Open live market →
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 20% 80% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 20% 80% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Gavin Newsom20%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez12%
Jon Ossoff10%
Kamala Harris7%
Josh Shapiro5%
Pete Buttigieg4%
Andy Beshear2%
Rahm Emanuel2%
Jon Stewart2%
Ro Khanna2%
Wes Moore1%
Stephen A. Smith1%
Gretchen Whitmer1%
Mark Cuban1%
J.B. Pritzker1%
Raphael Warnock1%
Cory Booker1%
Tim Walz1%
Michelle Obama1%
Mark Kelly1%
Gina Raimondo1%
Zohran Mamdani1%
Roy Cooper1%
John Fetterman1%
Jared Polis1%
Barack Obama1%
Hillary Clinton1%
Liz Cheney1%
Bernie Sanders1%
Phil Murphy1%
LeBron James1%
Hunter Biden1%
George Clooney1%
Chelsea Clinton1%
MrBeast1%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson1%
Oprah Winfrey1%
Andrew Yang1%
Beto O’Rourke1%
Kim Kardashian1%
Chris Murphy1%
Jasmine Crockett1%
Ruben Gallego1%
James Talarico1%
Graham Platner1%
Person P0%
Person Q0%
Person R0%
Person S0%
Person T0%
Person U0%
Person V0%
Person W0%
Person X0%
Person Y0%
Person Z0%
Person AA0%
Person AB0%
Person AC0%
Person AD0%
Person AE0%
Person AF0%
Person AG0%
Person AH0%
Person AI0%
Person AJ0%
Person AK0%
Person AL0%
Person AM0%
Person AN0%
Person AO0%
Person AP0%
Person AQ0%
Person AR0%
Person AS0%
Person AT0%
Person AU0%
Person AV0%
Person AW0%
Person AX0%
Person AY0%
Person AZ0%
Person BA0%
Person BB0%
Person BC0%
Person BD0%
Person BE0%
Person BF0%
Person BG0%
Person BH0%
Person BI0%
Person BJ0%
Person BK0%
Person BL0%
Person BM0%
Person BN0%
Person BO0%
Person BP0%
Person BQ0%
Person BR0%
Person BS0%
Person BT0%
Person BU0%
Person BV0%
Person BW0%
Person BX0%
Person BY0%
Person BZ0%
Person CA0%
Person CB0%
Person CC0%
Person CD0%
Person CE0%
Person CF0%
Person CG0%
Person CH0%
Person CI0%
Person CJ0%
Person CK0%
Person CL0%
Person CM0%
Person CN0%
Person CO0%
Person CP0%
Person CQ0%
Person CR0%
Person CS0%
Other0%

Market context

Market consensus: 20% chance of democratic presidential nominee 2028. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “N…

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
David ParkDavid ParkSports Data AnalystandOliver HughesOliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

Trade Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 on Sport Prediction

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

Related live markets

More live prediction markets from our tracker — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction.

See all markets →