Iran ceasefire continues through?

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Market context

The US and Iran agreed a temporary ceasefire in April after a six-week conflict that had driven Brent lower on relief and lifted equities sharply. Early reporting since then has shown how fragile that arrangement was: Iran’s leadership signalled that the truce could not be separated from Israeli strikes in Lebanon, while the White House said it would not accept Tehran’s version of the terms. That makes the current market price of 98% for continuity look like an assumption that the ceasefire has already moved from a military pause into a stable diplomatic outcome, rather than a live, reversible arrangement.

For traders, the key issue is not whether the original truce was announced, but whether either side publicly confirms a resumption of kinetic action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. The strongest near-term catalysts are official statements from Washington, Tehran, or mediators, followed by any credible reporting of strikes or retaliatory attacks. Reuters and other major outlets have previously linked market moves to developments around the Strait of Hormuz and the Lebanon front, both of which can quickly change the status of the ceasefire if they spill onto Iranian territory. Negotiation deadlines, military posture changes, and any formal US confirmation of action would matter far more than day-to-day rhetoric.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Iran ceasefire continues through? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.