Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely depressed following the 2026 Iran conflict, with daily transits hovering around 40 vessels—well below the 60-ships threshold required for this market to resolve YES. Historical data shows traffic dropped by over 95% at the crisis peak, falling from roughly 100 daily vessels to single digits for non-Iranian ships [4][3]. Even after the US–Iran ceasefire on 8 April and a subsequent navigation agreement on 17 June, volumes have only partially rebounded, stabilising between 30 and 60 crossings weekly rather than returning to prewar norms [7][8]. The current 52% crowd-implied probability reflects cautious optimism that the 60-day negotiation window, which began in June, will clear logistical bottlenecks like mine removal and restore permission protocols [9].

Traders should monitor the expiry of the 60-day US–Iran negotiation phase in mid-August, when Iran’s commitment to prewar transit practices without fees could end [9]. Key catalysts include weekly Kpler and AXSMarine transit reports, which recently showed 25 commercial vessels passing on a single day—the highest since April—but also highlighted persistent ambiguity over which authorities grant traversal permission [7][8]. The removal of the US naval blockade on Iranian vessels in April was a necessary precondition, yet shipping firms remain cautious due to anchored fleets and damaged Gulf energy infrastructure [9]. A sustained 7-day moving average above 60 requires roughly 91 total transits over seven consecutive days, a target unlikely without full clearance of underwater mines and resolved security guarantees [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.