Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz has surged to its highest traffic level in two months following a deal to halt the US-Iran war, with 25 commercial vessels crossing on Thursday—more than triple the daily average recorded since early March[1]. This reopening stems from a memorandum of understanding finalized on June 17, which guarantees immediate commercial navigation and requires the US to lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports by July 19[2]. Prior to the conflict, approximately 20% of global oil production passed through this chokepoint, but tanker traffic had previously dropped to zero as war risk cover was pulled by P&I clubs[3].

Historical precedent suggests that even after ceasefire announcements, commercial traffic often remains restricted for weeks due to routing uncertainty; in April 2026, despite a ceasefire, only six vessels navigated the strait daily[4]. The current 17% probability reflects this pattern of delayed recovery, as the agreement does not clarify whether Iran will ultimately maintain authority or impose tolls after the initial 60-day toll-free period[2]. Traders should monitor the July 19 deadline for the US blockade lift, as failure to meet this could trigger renewed closures, while also watching for real-time data from Kpler and AXSMarine to confirm sustained volume above the 60-ship threshold[2]. The settlement window ends 31 July 2026, leaving just over a month for traffic to stabilise before the market resolves[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.