Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for 100 days due to escalating conflict between Iran and the United States, halting a route that once carried 20% of global oil and natural gas supplies[2][4]. Commercial shipping remains suspended after a brief reopening, with Iran employing asymmetric power via drones and missiles to maintain control while keeping oil prices elevated[2]. The closure has triggered a massive spike in freight rates, with carriers imposing surcharges of $1,500 per shipment to the Persian Gulf, while the estimated daily economic cost exceeds $4 billion[1][3].

Historical precedents for such a systemic, non-cyclical shock in modern history suggest that a return to 60 daily transit calls by July 7 is highly improbable given the current 8% market-implied probability[2]. While verified crossings reached 25 on 18 June, marking a notable increase from near-standstill levels, this figure remains less than half the threshold required for a "Yes" resolution[6][8]. Previous attempts to reopen the waterway failed quickly after Iran reversed its decision following reported attacks, indicating that sustained traffic recovery is unlikely without a formal ceasefire[10].

Traders must monitor President Trump’s stipulation that reopening the strait is a prerequisite for any ceasefire agreement with Tehran, as minimal progress in peace negotiations has led to a declared naval blockade[4]. Key dependencies include the expiration of war risk cover and the threat of missile attacks, which continue to deter tanker owners despite some vessels attempting transits without AIS[1][5]. Any announcement regarding the removal of mines, which Tehran has implied were laid in the strait, or a shift in US-Israeli attack patterns following the February 28 assault, would be critical catalysts for traffic recovery[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

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