Trump out as President by August 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump is still in office, and the market’s 1% **Yes** price implies traders see only a very narrow path to a permanent departure before 31 August 2026.[1] The contract is not about a routine absence or temporary transfer of authority: it pays on resignation, removal, or any other permanent cessation of the presidency, with an announced resignation or removal counting immediately even if the effective date comes later.[1]

That is why the current pricing sits in the same broad category as other low-probability presidential exit markets: the bar is far higher than a normal news cycle shock, because impeachment would still need House action and a two-thirds Senate conviction, while a voluntary resignation usually depends on sustained political, legal, or personal pressure that is not visible in ordinary day-to-day governance.[1] In comparable departure markets, traders typically do not assign meaningful odds unless there is a concrete institutional trigger, a severe health event, or a documented collapse in support.[1]

The main catalysts to watch are any formal White House announcement, credible reporting of a medical or legal development, and the schedule around public appearances, because an explicit statement of resignation or permanent removal would resolve the market immediately.[1] Recent reporting has shown how quickly resignation odds can move when a sudden White House event is announced, even before any substantive confirmation arrives, which underlines how headline risk rather than slow-moving fundamentals tends to drive these contracts.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Trump out as President by August 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.