US-Iran deal text released by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement on 14 June 2026, with a signing ceremony scheduled for 19 June. This market tests whether any portion of the agreement's text becomes publicly available by 1 July 2026. The 90% implied probability reflects strong market confidence that disclosure will occur within the thirteen-day window following the announced signing date.

Historical precedent suggests high likelihood of text release. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) negotiated in 2015 saw its full text published within hours of announcement, with both the US State Department and Iranian Foreign Ministry releasing copies simultaneously. Similarly, the Iran nuclear deal framework agreement text became public immediately upon formal announcement. Bilateral agreements of this magnitude typically undergo public disclosure as part of ratification procedures and domestic political accountability, particularly when announced with ceremonial signing events. The explicit timing of a signing ceremony suggests preparation for formal documentation and likely accompanying public statements detailing key provisions.

Traders should monitor official announcements from the US State Department and Iranian Foreign Ministry on or shortly after 19 June, as these remain the primary channels for text release. Congressional notification requirements under the Case-Zablocki Act may trigger automatic disclosure timelines. Media reporting from diplomatic correspondents covering the signing ceremony will provide early signals regarding text availability. Any delays beyond the signing date warrant attention, as they could indicate negotiation complications or deliberate withholding pending legislative review. The settlement window's extension to 1 July provides a two-week buffer beyond the signing, accommodating standard publication delays whilst maintaining reasonable market resolution criteria.

Methodology

We track US-Iran deal text released by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.