Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is really asking whether any country will **formally sign a normalisation deal with Israel under the Abraham Accords framework** before the end-2026 deadline. The crowd price of **6%** suggests traders see a low but non-trivial chance that diplomacy produces a surprise, rather than a routine expansion.

The best comparable case is **Kazakhstan**, which formalised entry in early 2026, showing the framework can still widen beyond the original Gulf and North Africa set.[1] But the broader pattern has been slow: the Accords began with the UAE and Bahrain in 2020, then expanded only intermittently, and the remaining candidate pool is constrained by politics, security conditions and domestic opinion in likely states.[1][4] Reuters noted in March 2025 that Washington was still speaking openly about adding countries, while also flagging Saudi reservations tied to the Gaza war, which is a useful reminder that headline interest has not translated into quick signatures.[6]

For traders, the key catalysts are official joint statements, bilateral visits and any US-backed announcement tying a new deal explicitly to the Abraham Accords.[3] Recent market pricing also shows **Somaliland** and **Jordan** near the front of the board, but both would still need a public, formal agreement that is clearly attributed to the Accords framework to settle YES.[2][3] The main dependency is whether any regional breakthrough is paired with enough diplomatic cover for both governments to announce it before the settlement cut-off; absent that, the market remains dependent on a late, politically costly surprise rather than a scheduled process.[3][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

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