Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran over nuclear policy, sanctions relief, and regional security represent one of the most volatile geopolitical variables in American foreign policy. A formal written agreement signed by the sitting U.S. president before the end of July 2026 would require a substantial shift from the current trajectory, given the breakdown of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018 and the subsequent escalation of tensions under the Trump administration's first term.

Historical precedent suggests that major U.S.–Iran agreements emerge only under specific political conditions. The JCPOA itself took nearly a decade of preliminary talks before its 2015 conclusion under the Obama administration. Trump's withdrawal from that accord and subsequent "maximum pressure" campaign established a pattern of confrontation rather than negotiation. Any reversal would require either a dramatic change in Iranian leadership, a significant shift in U.S. domestic political priorities, or an external crisis forcing both parties to the negotiating table. The 19% implied probability reflects scepticism about such a reversal occurring within the 18-month window.

Traders should monitor several concrete developments: statements from Trump's diplomatic team regarding Iran policy, any shifts in U.S. sanctions enforcement, Iranian domestic political transitions, and regional security incidents that might alter calculation for either side. Recent reporting from Reuters and the Financial Times has highlighted ongoing back-channel communications between various parties, though these remain preliminary. The market's relatively low probability suggests the crowd views a signed agreement as unlikely absent a major, unexpected catalyst before August 2026.

Methodology

We track Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.