Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hamas’s public position remains the main anchor for this market, and the latest reporting still points the other way: Reuters said in April that Hamas would not even discuss disarmament without assurances of a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, while later reports in June said it was setting further conditions before any talks on weapons could begin.[1][3] That matters because the market only resolves on an official, credible announcement by Hamas leadership, not on mediator claims, draft frameworks, or pressure from outside actors.[1][2]

For traders, the key comparison is between past ceasefire bargaining and an actual change in stance. Recent coverage shows Hamas has repeatedly rejected outright, unilateral disarmament demands, while occasionally signalling narrower flexibility around phased decommissioning or surrendering heavier weapons under conditions it deems acceptable.[4][7][12] That leaves a wide gap between *talking about* weapons arrangements and formally agreeing to disarm in the Gaza Strip, which is why the crowd price has stayed at 0% yes despite sustained diplomacy.[8][13]

The catalysts to watch are whether mediators from Qatar, Egypt, Turkey, or the US produce a revised framework, whether Israel accepts any withdrawal timetable, and whether Hamas issues a statement through its recognised political leadership rather than anonymous intermediaries.[1][3][7] Reuters reported in April and June that negotiations were tied to Israeli troop pullback and other first-phase conditions, and AP later said “serious discussions” were under way on a proposal that would begin with the most dangerous weapons before moving to personal arms, but no official Hamas commitment was reported.[1][3][7] Any announced linkage to a Palestinian state, international security force, or staged decommissioning would be the main route to a qualifying yes.[11][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

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