Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is about whether Iran’s current governing order loses effective power before the end of May. With a 1% yes price, traders are already treating a rapid collapse as an extreme tail event: the Islamic Republic still has intact coercive institutions, clerical authority, and the IRGC command structure, even after months of conflict and sanctions pressure. Recent reporting from the Institute for the Study of War said the regime is preparing for economic instability and potential domestic unrest, but that is a warning sign rather than evidence of imminent regime change.

Historical comparables tend to argue against reading short deadlines as collapse windows. Even regimes under severe military pressure, leadership loss, or street unrest usually fracture over longer periods unless there is a clear split in the security apparatus, a parallel governing authority, or a rapid loss of control in the capital. Broadly, markets that price in a near-term overthrow usually need visible defections, a succession crisis, or mass mobilisation that overwhelms the state; absent those, the default outcome remains continuity.

What matters now is whether negotiations and military posturing change that balance. ISW-CTP says IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi is driving Iran’s war and negotiating posture, which suggests the decision-making core is still functioning. Traders should watch for a breakdown in talks, any new Israeli or US strike campaign, signs of IRGC or elite defections, and credible reporting of nationwide unrest or paralysis in Tehran. If the regime survives the next week without a security split or a formal power transfer, the May 31 deadline becomes even harder to reach.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.